Case studies: Analytical predictions

One practical example is worth more than a thousand words.

In this section, we would like to demonstrate our analytical capabilities and ability to anticipate future events.

Our focus is not on explaining why something happened after the fact, but on making forward-looking assessments based on patterns, broad situational awareness, available information and straightforward logic.

The informal tone of some of our videos should not be mistaken for a lack of analytical seriousness. These videos serve as a public record of our analytical work and forecasting track record. They are presented through a fictional character who reflects on the events and developments taking place around him.
The format is deliberately informal. The underlying analysis and forecasts are not.

CASE 01: Iran Diplomatic Talks

Information cutoff:
15 June 2026

Forecast:
On the eve of the signing of the Geneva peace agreement between the United States and Iran, scheduled for 19 June 2026, almost all parties to the conflict stated that an agreement would be signed. However, we argued otherwise and recorded our analysis on video four days before the anticipated events as evidence of our forecast.

Key indicators:
- The forecast was based on an analysis of financial market behavioral patterns and the observation that significant profits can be made from such market fluctuations. Based on other data, there are numerous private companies affiliated with Donald Trump that profit from these movements.
- Therefore, there was no reason for Donald Trump to stop this flow of profits.

Outcome:
The agreement was not signed.

Post-event assessment:
The forecast was fully confirmed.

Video: [YouTube] - https://youtu.be/s0zASjrDpN0

CASE 02: Ukraine Peace Talks Explained

Information cutoff:
11 February 2026

Forecast:
At the end of 2025 and beginning of 2026, Donald Trump and his administration exerted significant pressure on Ukraine to agree to a peace deal with Russia aimed at ending the war in Ukraine. The culmination of the Trump administration's policy was a final deadline: either Ukraine would agree to a deal by the end of June 2026 or risk losing U.S. support.

Key indicators:
- This forecast was based on an analysis of the political situation in the region, as well as an understanding of the broader regional context.
- The forecast was also based on an analysis of previous initiatives that had failed, as well as Russia's persistent demands for significant concessions in exchange for limited commitments.

Outcome:
The agreement was not signed.

Post-event assessment:
The forecast was fully confirmed. The factors identified as the basis for the forecast remained unchanged.

Video: [YouTube] - https://youtu.be/rzHyxsct6Sg

CASE 03: Global War - Is the Answer

Information cutoff:
27 December 2025

Forecast:
A forecast of potential socioeconomic developments in the near future.

Key indicators:
- This video was more focused on socio-philosophical reflections on the current state of global politics and the economy.
- The video explored potential events that could occur in the future if no corrective action were taken.

Outcome:
One month after the video was published, one of the anticipated events - an attack by radical ecoenvironmental activists targeting critical infrastructure and posing a threat to people's lives - occurred in Germany. In February - March 2026, war broke out in Iran, resulting in significant global economic consequences.

Post-event assessment:
Some of the anticipated events materialized. However, because the original forecasts did not specify clear timeframes, it is difficult to determine conclusively which forecasts have already been confirmed, which have not, and which may still occur in the future.

Video: [YouTube] - https://youtu.be/hqONO1EieGQ

Case studies: Market and Investigative Research

Others forecast markets. We investigate what’s happening right now on this market.

Due to NDAs and, in some cases, simple gentleman’s agreements regarding the non-disclosure of client materials, we cannot directly publish or display the work completed for our clients. However, we can demonstrate the areas and types of research we have worked on through our publicly available video analyses.

Please do not be put off by the deliberately informal tone of some of our videos. They serve as a public demonstration of our analytical capabilities and are presented through a fictional character who reflects on the events and developments taking place around him.

The format is informal by design. The underlying research and analytical work is not.

CASE STUDY 04: Uber + Government = The Perfect Crime

How do large technology aggregator companies such as Uber, Bolt, Glovo and others circumvent legal requirements concerning guaranteed minimum pay and working-time conditions? And is the government involved in enabling or tolerating these practices?

Key Findings:
01 - Uber and other similar aggregators appear to use grey and potentially unlawful operating schemes.
02 - Despite significant potential violations of labour law and other legal requirements, government authorities have been slow to address the underlying problem.

Analytical Assessment:
Based on the information collected, the research indicates that major technology companies use intermediary companies to operate in the Polish market, potentially allowing them to distance themselves from direct legal and operational responsibility. The research also indicates that government authorities have been slow to address the issue, creating the appearance of problem-solving while the underlying issues and potential solutions remain relatively visible.

Video: [YouTube] - https://youtu.be/S8hgOCizo20

Why do relatively unfamiliar individuals sometimes offer people the opportunity to become directors of their companies, and what could be the underlying risks and implications of such arrangements?

Key Findings:
01 - The amounts of money involved in VAT fraud schemes can be extremely large.
02 - This type of financial crime appears to operate on a systematic and organized basis rather than as isolated incidents.

Analytical Assessment:
VAT fraud can operate on a significant scale within the European Union. One of the key characteristics of some schemes is the use of nominee or front companies registered in the names of individuals who may have limited or no apparent connection to the underlying criminal activity. This structure can make it more difficult to identify the individuals ultimately responsible for the fraudulent transactions and can complicate investigations and recovery of illicitly obtained funds.

Video: [YouTube] - https://youtu.be/S8hgOCizo20